Six over-valued for fantasy football 2011
All ADPs taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com
Michael Vick, 7 – This is more of a nod to the depth at quarterback this year than it is an indictment on Vick. However, Vick’s only played a full 16-game schedule once in his career, meaning he’s about as fragile as a leg lamp (Holla if ya get that one). Before his 3.5:1 TD:INT rate last year his previous career high was 2:1, in 2002. His nine touchdowns last year were also a career high, and the last time he had more than six rushing TDs (8, in 2002) he only had one the next year. Vick’s susceptible to missing games this year, and while we can all dream about a 16-game season from him where he puts up 30+ touchdowns and 4,000 total yards, it’s very unlikely to happen. You really shouldn’t even think about taking him ahead of any of the top running backs or even Aaron Rodgers or other top quarterbacks.
Peyton Hillis, 25 – Hillis is currently going ahead of Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw and Felix Jones, all of whom I’d rather have over Hillis. The fourth-ranked RB from 2010 should still do OK in 2011, but I imagine the Browns will open up the passing game a bit now that Colt McCoy has a grasp of Pat Shurmur’s new offense and looked pretty good in the ’10 regular season, as well as the ’11 pre-season. In Hillis’ last eight games of 2011 he averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, down from 4.8 in the first half of the season. He also only topped 60 yards once in his last five games. I wouldn’t spend more than a fifth round pick on him.
Dwayne Bowe, 34 – If you wanna take a lottery ticket on Bowe, go ahead. But you’re not going to win every week with him. He’s the king of inconsistency. For every 8-catch, 100-yard, 2-TD game he has a 1-catch, 3-yard game. Including Bowe’s clunker of a playoff game he had nine irrelevant fantasy weeks, out of 17 total. Two of those weeks include zero catches, and two other weeks are one-catch blunders. Bowe basically had seven relevant fantasy weeks last year, and granted they were huge weeks, but like I said: You’re not going to win every week with him. Much more consistent guys going after him include Wes Welker, Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Maclin.
Ryan Mathews, 48 – Mathews is currently going ahead of several backs who have their team’s backfield to themselves, including Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson and Tim Hightower. I’m not ready to invest a high pick in Mathews until I see him perform at a high level consistently throughout the season. Also, Mathews isn’t even the clear No. 1 back on his own team. Mike Tolbert was an absolute beast last year, scoring touchdowns in 10 games and out-rushing and out-receiving Mathews. Even if Mathews gets off to a hot start, I’m almost certain Tolbert will still see his fair share of carries and Mathews won’t dominate the backfield, partially just to keep him fresh and injury-free throughout the season.
Daniel Thomas, 70 – The Dolphins brought in Reggie Bush a while ago, and just recently signed Larry Johnson to work out of the backfield. The Palm Beach Post is reporting that Thomas has fallen out of favor with Dolphins coach Tony Sparano, and that the Dolphins are looking to attack defenses through the air this year. Crowded backfield + desire to throw = lack of success for rookie running back. Fred Jackson, Joseph Addai, Tolbert and even Bush, who’s proven he can play at the pro level, are better picks later in drafts.
Pittsburgh D, 77 – I seriously can not believe a defense is going in the eighth round, ahead of guys like Addai, Bush, Santana Moss, Brandon Jacobs and others. You should never, ever take a defense before the second to last round. No defense is worth taking over proven players who can help you week in and week out. Most of Pittsburgh’s best fantasy weeks last year were against crappy teams like the Panthers, Browns, Titans and Raiders. So much of what a fantasy D does is dependent on its schedule. You can even not draft a D and wait until week one to see who’s playing the Bengals or Seahawks, pick that team up, pocket 15 points, drop that team, then pick up whoever is playing the Bengals or Seahawks again for the next week, and so on.