Skip to content

2011-12 Fantasy Basketball – Overvalued

December 14, 2011

It’s harder to find overvalued players in fantasy basketball than it is to find undervalued players simply because guys being drafted in the first few rounds are going to be pretty good and can contribute to your team in at least several ways. But there are several players who only bring a knife and a salad fork to the table when you really need your players to at least bring a full set of silverware. My job is to point out who those guys are and why you should avoid them, or at least know what you’re getting yourself into.

I love Rajon Rondo. I had him on my team last year and he was great. He fit right into my plan of high assist guards+efficient big men. But when you’re spending an early third-round pick and drafting Rondo you need to know that he’s only going to help you in two categories: steals and assists. His field goal percentage is pretty good, but only once in his career has he attempted more than 10 shots a game. He’s not an elite scorer, he doesn’t help you in free throw percentage, and he’s shown no signs of improving his 3-point shooting – not that he needs to for the Celtics though. If you’re going to spend an early pick on a top point guard, spend one on Williams, Curry or Ellis – guys who will help you in more categories. Just take Curry in the second and Zach Randolph in the third instead of Pau Gasol in the second and Rondo in the third.

Brook Lopez rebounds like Muggsy Bogues. Lopez is 7′ tall. Bogues was like 5’3″. Lopez scores (20 ppg, third among centers) but not very efficiently (49%, 12th). Lopez finished 18th among centers in rebounds (6.0…SIX!) per game last year, while playing the sixth most minutes per game. His free throw percentage (78) is good for a big man, but he doesn’t rebound, doesn’t pass the ball well, only blocks 1.5 shots a game, and was 25th among centers in turnovers a game last year. He barely impacts any category; you can get a 16-point a game scorer sometime in the later rounds and he’ll give you almost the same numbers Lopez gives you. Don’t waste an early fifth-round pick on Lopez when Paul Millsap and David West are still on the board.

Danny Granger‘s going 26th overall in ESPN drafts so far, after a year that saw him decline in almost every major category. The Pacers just brought in David West to add some offensive punch, and have Paul George, George Hill and Roy Hibbert all growing offensively, too. In the two season previous to last season, Granger put up 19 and 18 shots, respectively. But last year he only put 15.9, in less than two minutes fewer per game than the previous two seasons. Granger also got to the line less last year. His rebounds, assists, steals and points declined, while his turnovers actually went up. Granger’s efficiency should rise this year, but I doubt he’ll be able to improve on those counting stats this year with the added offense around him.

The days of 11 RebIsts from Stephen Jackson are far over. Jackson’s RebIsts numbers have dropped the past two years, and he’s not an elite scorer anymore. His field goal percentage will be a major drag on any team this year due to the high number of shots he’ll put up. Also, he’s in Milwaukee, where even the mayor of Milwaukee doesn’t want to be. There’s very little offense around him up there, which means he might be able to top 20 points a game, but his percentages probably will be dreadful. He’s currently going 47th overall, but I wouldn’t touch him until pick 90, if I even drafted him.

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: